Saturday, July 24, 2010

NBA Preview

Finally! I have an outlet for all this knowledge and all these thoughts and opinions that have crowded my brain for years! Obviously, my focus will be on the Jazz and their potential and such, but I'll try to be slightly impartial. Let's get right into it---

Atlantic Division:
This is still Boston's division and I'd be very surprised to see anybody seriously contend for the title unless NY gets Chris Paul. Boston will have a better record this year than last because they'll be more healthy and a little rejuvenated after their finals appearance last year, but they won't push for the best record in the conference by far.
New York will be improved but not near the point where they hoped to be at the beginning of the summer. Amare and Raymond Felton will provide some punch that they've lacked for a long time.
Toronto. New Jersey, Philadelphia... get ready for next year's lottery. However, each has a very solid rookie this year that should get plenty of time this year. Ed Davis was very impressive in the Las Vegas this summer. He looked better there than he ever did at UNC. And Derrick Favors dominated at times. Those times were few and far between but he should impress this season. As for Evan Turner, he needs to get used to playing without the ball. He looked lost at times in Orlando. He'll be a solid player eventually, but I don't think he was as NBA-ready as the scouts projected.

Central Division:
The central division is a 2-team race but don't expect Milwaukee to seriously challenge Chicago at the top of this division. The Bulls filled every hole this offseason. They have the bruiser, the low-post scorer, the shooter, the slasher and the facilitator. Luol Deng, James Johnson, Taj Gibson and C.J. Watson are not as well known as the veterans Miami got to fill out their bench, but they will produce, mark my words. This team will have something to prove all year. They saw The Decision. They hear about the Big 3 every day. They will come out working hard each game to show that they belong in that talk with the Florida teams.
Milwaukee has two great pieces (Jennings and Bogut) but they have a lot of money invested into Michael Redd, Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette. So I dont see them continuing to progress they way they did last year, but they'll be a solid playoff team for years to come.
The best player on Cleveland's roster is now 34 years old. The entire team was structured around helping LeBron James so if Mo Williams can shoulder a slight portion of that load this team could make the playoffs but I wouldnt hold my breath if I was in Cleveland..well maybe I would, it's pretty gross there.
Indiana has Tyler Hansbrough and they just found out the Pacers aren't leaving town so it's a great year for them. Lance Stephenson, rookie out of Cincinnati, will be fun to watch this year.
After seven straight seasons of at least 50 wins, the Pistons completely dropped out the last two seasons. And after making a splash last summer in signing Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, both struggled terribly last season where their stats dropped in basically every category. If they can turn it around, and Greg Monroe and Austin Daye and the other younglings can step in and fill their bench roles well, expect Detroit to vastly improve on their 27 wins from last season.

Southeast Division:
Best Division in the league. Miami will claim the division title after the greatest free agency period ever. Just as many supposed, veterans from all around came willing to sacrifice dough for a ring. I, for one, was really hoping to see the Penny Hardaway to the Heat rumors come to fruition (or at least get Little Penny!!). Unless Orlando is able to acquire Chris Paul, Miami will win this division but all four meetings between these two will be amazing.
Because this is a family blog, I'll turn a little time over to my beautiful wife, Amanda:
"jason is weird!!! and this is not our blog but it is his blog because it's about sports and i don't wannt to be a part of a sports blog! we can make a family one but i don;t want to be in this one!!!!" Thank you, Amanda.
Don't forget that Atlanta is here, too. Could this be the year they break through and really play in the playoffs? With the vast improvement of Miami and Chicago with Orlando and Boston still there, I would say not likely.
Charlotte could end up in last place in this division after making the playoffs last season. I don't think Washington will make that big of a jump with John Wall, but its possible. He will be a superstar. Another player that impressed me in the summer league was the Bobcats' Gerald Henderson. He only played 8 minutes per game last year but he'll play a bigger role this year. Best case scenario for Charlotte: trade for Chris Paul using their log jam of wings that include Henderson, Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace and take on Emeka Okafor's contract in exchange for Erick Dampier's expiring contract.
Bobcats general manager Rod Higgins said this when Dampier was aqcuired from Dallas: “You have to consider that contract is probably one of the most valuable contracts in the league,” Higgins said. “The flexibility is the beautiful part of having Erick’s deal, maybe not so much for Erick himself as a player, but for the franchise itself.” (Yahoo! Sports) Can you imagine your new boss saying this about you?! We don't care about having him play for us, we just want to trade him as soon as possible. Ouch...

Now before we get to the Western Conference, let's take a look at this chart. The top 8 active scorers in the playoffs with number of games played and scoring average. Notice anything? All but Wade are infamously known as being able to score in the playoffs but never lead a team to victory. Minus Wade, Titles: 0 Finals appearances: 3.

Player Playoff games played Scoring average
1 Allen Iverson 71




















29.7
2 LeBron James 60




















29.4
3 Tracy McGrady 38




















28.5
4 Brandon Roy 6




















26.7
5 Vince Carter 42




















25.9
6 Dwyane Wade 61




















25.7
7 Dirk Nowitzki 97




















25.5
8 Elton Brand 12




















25.4


Northwest Division:
This will be the most competitive division in the league. Denver has everybody back, Utah will be improved, and Oklahoma City is definitely one of the most intriguing teams in the league. With an average age of 24, the Thunder are the youngest team in the league, so I think they're still a year away from challenging seriously for the conference. This year they could win the division, but again, I think they're too young. And throw in Portland with the addition of Wes Matthews and possibly a healthy Greg Oden and this will be a great 4-team race.
Every once in a while we have the privilege of watching someone "get it". Deron Williams found out that he can dominate and that will continue this season. Also considering the fact that the Jazz improved on their biggest weakness, length, this offseaon.
Boozer 6'8" -> Jefferson 6'10" Korver 6'6" -> Heyward 6'8" and Matthews 6'4" -> Bell 6'7" When the Jazz win the division this year, thank LeBron and Chris Paul. Their leaving to greener pastures and DWill's negative comments forced the front office to make the trade for Al Jefferson.
Looking at Minnesota's roster, one would think they would improve on that 15-67 record from last year so count of David Kahn making a last second move to ship Kevin Love and Jonny Flynn to China in exchange for Stephon Marbury and God Shamgod.

Pacific Division:
I hate the Lakers. 6/24
Phoenix may be just as good even without Amare Stoudemire IF Lopez and Frye play up to their height and talent. And hopefully Earl Clark will continue to improve. However, without Amare they will not reach the western conference finals.
Golden State will be much improved this season and possibly challenge for a playoff spot. But they'll finish around 10th. David Lee was a big get and Stephon Curry could be an all-star this year. Seriously. Sacramento will be close to this as well but they're probably 2 years from the playoffs. Demarcus Cousins will be one of the best centers in the league in 5 years. And the Clippers needed to get a big free agent to really get into the playoff picture, but Eric Bledsoe was a very good pick up and obviously Blake Griffin is going to be a beast when he gets back into the full swing of things.

Southwest Division:
Dallas has as much talent as anybody in this conference. Expect to see them get the 2 seed again next year, but the real question is how will they do in the playoffs? Getting Tyson Chandler might help when they get to playoffs because of his defense and rebounding. He'll never take over a game, but Dallas doesn't need somebody like that. They have Dirk. Chandler has only averaged double digit points in a season once, but he can definitely get you 10 boards and 2-3 blocks.
San Antonio has done a great job of collecting young talent while keeping their aging core. George Hill has been everything a team could want from a back up point guard. He averaged 12.4 points, shot a solid percentage all around and had an assist to turnover ratio better than 2:1. Add in DeJuan Blair, James Anderson and Tiago Splitter, who won't be superstars in this league but will be very solid starters in a few years. Tim Duncan-- this guy is incredible. He's averaged ten or more rebounds every year in the league and at least 18 points every year. His numbers may drop slightly as Splitter starts his NBA career and Blair gets more time, but Duncan still has quite a bit of gas in the tank, which means the Spurs still have another playoff run or two in them with this group.
Meanwhile, Houston, Memphis and New Orleans are all wishing they could play in the eastern conference. With Yao back, the Rockets are a good bet to sneak back into the playoffs but in the west they may have to win 50 games to secure that 8 seed. Six and eighth seeds, Portland and Oklahoma City, are getting better and the seventh seeded Spurs will look to improve from last year's slow start that put them on the road in the playoffs. So topping any of the lower seeds in the west will not be easy. Memphis and New Orleans will most likely end up out of the playoff picture near the end of the season, but Memphis, I think, will rebound next season and make the playoffs for the first time since '06 and maybe even win a game this time! (The Grizz have a combined 0-12 playoff record in 3 appearances.) New Orleans is in trouble. A disgruntled superstar, aging wings, a 6'9" very overpaid center (whom they aqcuired by trading their 7'1" overpaid center. Explain that one to me, please) While Paul is publicly stating that he is happy with managements plans for the future, the execs are using this to keep control and hopefully pull in better offers from Orlando, New York, New Jersey and Charlotte.

Eastern Conference
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Orlando
4. Boston
5. Atlanta
6. Milwaukee
7. Charlotte
8. New York
9. Detroit
10. Washington
11. Cleveland
12. Toronto
13. Indiana
14. Philly
15. New Jersey

Western Conference
1. Los Angeles
2. Dallas
3. Utah
4. Oklahoma City
5. Denver
6. San Antonio
7. Portland
8. Houston
9. Phoenix
10. Memphis
11. Golden State
12. Sacramento
13. LA Clippers
14. New Orleans
15. Minnesota


Playoffs
Miami 4 New York 1
Chicago 4 Charlotte 1
Orlando 4 Milwaukee 2
Boston 4 Atlanta 3

LA Lakers 4 Phoenix 0
Dallas 4 Portland 3
Utah 4 San Antonio 2
Oklahoma City 4 Denver 3


Miami 4 Boston 3
Chicago 4 Orlando 2

LA Lakers 4 Oklahoma City 3
Utah 4 Dallas 2


Miami 4 Chicago 3
LA Lakers 4 Utah 3


Miami 4 LA Lakers 1



I cannot wait for the Miami-Chicago series! At the end of game 7, I don't think Chicago will have an answer for LeBron and D-Wade, but if anybody in this league can knock Dwyane's Heat, it's the Bulls.

Wow, that took longer than I thought. And I should probably go back and check all this garbage I just typed..hmm... Well everybody let me know what you think!



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11 August 2010--
The Hornets have worked out a trade for Trevor Ariza, and it should be official soon. They'll send Darren Collison and James Posey to the Pacers, and the Nets are also involved in the deal. This doesn't have a huge impact on the final standings in my NBA preview, but it will most definitely move New Orleans up from the #14 spot (which I chose when it was assumed that Chris Paul was as good as gone). The Hornets will be in position to battle for a playoff spot, but without a legitimate big, they won't get out of the first round, if they make it. Houston, however, got worse by trading Ariza for Courtney Lee, and I'm not sure now that they are a playoff team. We'll see in the next few days if draft picks are involved, but we know that Houston is saving major money in this deal, which could help their future, but will hurt their chances this season.

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